World Sugar Market
Second revision of the 2023/24 balance reveals a modest deficit of 0.689 mln tonnes
Production increased to 179.749 mln tonnes, consumption to 180.438 mln tonnes
Higher Brazil production figures drives the 2023/24 production outlook, lower Thailand production offsets most of this Brazil change
Trade volumes expected to increase on last season, with greater dependence on Brazil exports
Market Price Update
Futures market prices declined sharply on speculator and index fund liquidation before year-end
Our price view remains neutral but with a bullish bias if non-commercials re-establish longs
Energy prices fall 1.8% in Q4 2023 while grains prices decline 4% due to bumper harvests
USD depreciates against all currencies monitored by the ISO
Brazilian domestic sugar price falls after reaching record level in October
EU prices remain at record level
World Fuel Ethanol Market
World ethanol production in 2024 marginally lower at 115.4 bln litres. Global consumption in 2024 projected to total 110.2 bln litres, up from 108.1 bln litres in 2023
US production set to fall in 2024, Brazilian output to fall after record CS cane crop in 2023
India’s ethanol blend at a record 12% in 2023, but challenges remain for 2024
Co Product Markets
Tight world balance and elevated prices foreseen for 2024
Global molasses production (excluding Brazil) forecast to rise slightly in 2023/24
Weaker molasses demand from animal feed compounders as feed-grain prices weaken
EU molasses consumption hinges on India’s export, which could halve on back of new export tax
Global molasses exports down 10% in 2023
In Brazil, bagasse-based electricity sold to the grid rises by 14% in 2023
In India, bagasse-based energy generation in 2023 down 12.7%, to lowest level since 2020
European Bioplastics provide figures for 2023-2028 - PLA accounted for 27% of bioplastics in 2023
LG Chem and CJ CheilJedang have joined forces to commercialize bio-nylon
TotalEnergies Corbion published a LCA study on recycled PLA
Alternative Sweeteners
Higher exports to Mexico lifts US HFCS production in 2023, higher exports likely continue in 2024
US corn millers and HFCS end users agree 2023 price roll-over for 2024
EU isoglucose production and use downgraded in 2023/24
Natural alternative sweeteners gain traction
Fermentation Stevia given EFSA approval
Zero Sugar honey substitute launched in US
Protein-sweetened beverage released by US company
WTO Update
13th Ministerial Conference to take place February 26th -29th February
Draft negotiating text for agriculture seen as a potential outcome document
Brazil and Thailand to sign a bilateral agreement to settle WTO complaint at MC13
RTAs and Sugar Provisions
AfCFTA implementation advances
China-Nicaragua FTA in effect; Early harvest arrangement agreed for China-Honduras FTA
Ecuador-China FTA ratified
EU-MERCOSUR FTA stalled again
Guyana yet to sign new Samoa Agreement
Guatemala formally joins South Korea-Central America FTA
India-EU move closer to agreeing FTA
Executive Brief
World Sugar Market
World Balance
Production
Consumption
Trade
Exporters
Importers
Fundamental Outlook
Brief(24)01 – Trade Balance for Raw and White Sugar
Market Price Update
Futures, Spreads and Arbitrage
Freight
Commodities and Currencies
Domestic Prices
World Fuel Ethanol Market
Overview
Price Dynamics
Carbon Markets
Production
Consumption
Co Product Markets
Molasses
Bagasse Cogeneration
Bioplastics & Biochemicals
Alternative Sweeteners
HFCS / Isoglucose
Intensive Sweeteners
WTO Update
Regional Trade Agreements and Sugar Provisions
World Sugar Balance Estimates