Southern Africa is an important region in the world sugar economy, housing both significant (low cost) surplus producers and sugar deficit countries. Seven countries (Eswatini, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe) producing a surplus of about 1.5 mln tonnes annually. In contrast, four countries (Democratic Republic of Congo, Angola, Madagascar, and Tanzania) are sugar deficit, and five others (Botswana, Namibia, Lesotho, Comoros, and Seychelles) produce no sugar at all, creating a regional deficit of around 1.1 mln tonnes each year. Most imports are sourced from outside the region, while surplus sugar is exported to the EU, UK, US, and other African markets. Limited intra-regional trade occurs between surplus and deficit countries. As consumption will likely grow faster than production over the remainder of this decade, the region will see a tighter surplus and increased import needs. Intra-regional trade could rise. Most sugar industries are looking to diversify into green energy, including fuel ethanol, sustainable aviation fuels, and bagasse cogenerated electricity for a sustainable future.

This ISO study scrutinizes the dynamics of wholesale and retail prices in recent years, offering a comprehensive overview based on an aggregate and weighted average to give a global perspective. It also analyses disparities in wholesale and retail prices between countries that produce cane and beet, as well as between importing and exporting nations, taking into account regional variations. It provides insights into key consumer markets like India, the EU, China, Brazil, the US, Mexico, the Russian Federation/EAEU, and Thailand, offering a comprehensive view of global sugar market dynamics.

This study replicates the methodology used by trade houses and market analysts to create quarterly supply and demand balances and trade flow reconciliations, testing its relevance in today's sugar market and ISO analysis. Quarterly figures provide deeper insights into producer, consumer, and trade behaviours, reflecting season-specific factors like harvest timings, festival dates, and logistics challenges. The study highlights traders' forward-looking market prospects, aiding ISO members in understanding market dynamics, corporate marketing, and position management.

The sugar producing nations of Central America (CA)- Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama - have seen extraordinary production growth. Sugar production grew by 64% between 2001 and 2014 (from 3.4 mln tonnes to 5.6 mln tonnes) making the region one of the most dynamic in the world. However over the past decade production has plateaued and export availability has been squeezed. A deep dive into the five largest sugar industries is presented in this study, analysing industry structure, technical performance, key drivers and issues, with a view to understand potential sugar production and export availability over the remainder of this decade. Sugar is no longer the only focal point, and the region's leading companies are re-thinking their mid-to-long term strategies with a greater drive to further diversify into cogeneration and biofuels, including other products where government policy is favourable.

Renewable energy production can be a successful diversification avenue - the study examines Brazil, Guatemala, Honduras, India, Mauritius, and Nicaragua to better understand their development of bagasse-based electricity generation. While the cane sugar sector has benefited from cogeneration of energy using bagasse, biogas and biomethane production offer ways for both cane and sugar beet industries to take advantage of the by-products and residues generated during production to add value and reduce emissions.

India is the second biggest producer of sugar in the world and the biggest consumer. This makes it a key driver for the outlook of the global sugar economy and for world market prices. In the last decade, and since the publication of our study in 2015 – MECAS(15)19, entitled “India: Future Sugar Industry Prospects” – there has been substantial change in its standing and outlook. This study will focus on three key areas of interest for all sugar industries – Agronomics, Trade and Diversification with data provided by the Commission for Agricultural Costs & Prices, Government of India, and the Indian Sugar Milling Association (ISMA). The key to the outlook for the industry in terms of agronomy is focused on the integration of better varieties and mechanical harvesting. Meanwhile, the trade situation is complex, given opportunities in raw sugar, white sugar, molasses, and ethanol potentially arising in the future.

Price inflation since 2022 has affected the input cost structure of many goods and services across the globe. The sugar industry has seen the price of inputs including the cost of agriculture - from seed to harvest - as well as the cost of processing, distribution, and sales soar beyond expectations. While each sugar industry has an individual structure, with varying exposure to inflationary pressures, this study aims to review general operational aspects and their associated input costs, to distil possible changes in the sugar industry’s competitive position. Sugarcane and sugarbeet are high yielding crops, but both require extensive husbandry, continuous investment and maintenance of capital assets to maximise yields. A review of the supply chain also provides a basis for a comparison against other crops.

The aviation sector remains in need of decarbonisation. Unlike in road transportation, the low energy density of batteries means that electrification cannot be applied to commercial jets. Sustainable Aviation Fuels represent the option with the most potential to decarbonise aviation, and a solution which will remain relevant well into the 21st century. This represents a new diversification avenue and allows the sugar sector to continue to support the global decarbonisation effort. This study examines the current SAF landscape to better understand where the sugar sector can contribute. The challenge for sugar industries will be in providing affordable and sustainable feedstocks that can be used for SAF conversion. Key in scaling up this energy transition will be an enabling policy environment that promotes the commercialisation of SAF and helps close the cost gap compared to petroleum-based jet fuel.

Indonesia’s sugar market is characterized by strongly growing consumption, static local production and consequent rising imports, making the nation a major raw sugar importer. The government has long harbored the ambition to be self-sufficient in sugar. Indonesia’s President, in November 2022, announced a plan to become self-sufficient in sugar by 2030. This study delves into the key characteristics and drivers of Indonesia’s sugar industry and market, highlighting key issues and challenges. Projections of local consumption, production and imports are developed using a scenario approach.

Thailand’s sugar industry has staged a production recovery after two disastrous years in 2019/20 and 2020/21. The abrupt slump in industry fortunes came after more than a decade of structural growth, supported by proven resilience as the second largest exporter after Brazil, and expectations for robust industry growth going forward. Key weaknesses and challenges for Thailand’s sugar industry are examined to ascertain if there is potential for a return to an expansion path in the medium term.

Agriculture has always been at the mercy of the weather and, by implication, changing climates must mean a need for change in farming. This change is not without its challenges, as global food demand and the impact on the environment need to be considered. Furthermore, there are agricultural practices, such as multi-year crop rotations, and investments into existing or new equipment that make change challenging. This study considers the three desired outcomes that are integral to climate smart agriculture (CSA). These are the drive towards higher yields, the resilience against climate change and the cost of growing crops in terms of greenhouse gas emissions.

One of the most important challenges facing the world’s agriculture and agro industries is ensuring adequate supplies of healthy and nutritious foods to a growing world population, while making sure the entire process of production is sustainable. In a world of scarce resources, optimising the use of land and inputs to produce more with less is of paramount importance to guaranteeing food security and availability, while preserving the environment. Hence the importance of increasing productivity in all agri-food sectors, including the sugar sector. This study provides agricultural statistics from 48 cane and 33 beet growing countries. The statistics covered a time span of 20 years, from 2001/02 to 2020/21, and represent 98.8% of global sugar production.

Food system analysis is a relatively new field, bringing together all parts of food supply, from agriculture and agronomy to global food availability and environmental considerations. While academics broadly focus on the global impacts, such as climate change and health, this new field of study provides a platform on which to discuss and exhibit industry credentials, including its sustainability, and to challenge misconceptions. This study provides an overview of the industry, its structures and strengths, with the aim of broadening recognition of its potential and promoting it as an important contributor to these objectives.

This paper revisits the global landscape of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and foreign direct investment (FDI) activity in the world sugar industry, updating ISO studies released in 2016 and 2012, and extending the ISO’s long-term commitment to monitoring these activities since a first paper was written on cross-border investments in the world sugar industry in 2007. This study provides a comprehensive stocktake of global M&A/FDI activities since 2016, looking at drivers, key players, as well as details of transactions that have occurred. The long period of low world sugar prices, prior to 2020, also prompted divestment and a reorganization of priorities among multinational traders. Significant activity has occurred within the sugar marketing and distribution space, with developments altering the concentration of the world sugar trade.

Globally, sugar consumption contracted slightly between 2017-2020, due to a number of reasons, one of which is the continuing war on sugar and the associated imposition of sugar taxes, while another is thought to be the growing choice of alternative sweeteners, particularly those sourced from natural feedstocks. These allow food and beverage manufacturers to claim their product as a ‘healthy’ life-style choice whilst achieving significant sugar reduction. This study provides an update to the ISO’s paper on alternative sweeteners (sugar substitutes) released in 2017. Whilst providers of alternative sweeteners extol the ability of their offerings (often combined with fibre and other bulking agents) to fully substitute for sugar in “great tasting” products, there is no empirical evidence at a global level, as yet, that alternative sweeteners are diminishing sugar’s share of the global sweeteners market.

This study continues the ISO’s investigation into how the world sugar trade is shaped by government policy. In particular, the wide range of government policies and interventions that are typically categorised as non-tariff measures (NTMs) and non-tariff barriers (NTBs) to trade are examined. A key conclusion is that there are significant differences in the type and duration of NTMs/NTBs governments provide to their national sugar industries, creating both short-term and long-term impacts on the sugar trade, with evolving preferences, and concessions under FTA and Bilateral Agreements, already altering trade flows in some regions.

In the short and medium-term, ethanol is a low-hanging fruit for a number of countries, as it is able to further goals of decarbonising existing petrol vehicle fleets quickly and effectively. Lifecycle analyses have shown that FFVs using sugar-crops-based ethanol offer significant emissions reductions versus conventional petrol fuels, demonstrating that a diverse set of pathways towards greener transportation are already available. For the motorcar industry today, the concern is whether their investments into alternative fuels, such as ethanol, will be considered part of the solution to decarbonise emissions by governments around the world going forward.

Foreign exchange markets are vital to the operation of the global economy, with global commerce promoting economies of scale and development. In the commodity sector, the presence of futures markets has allowed producers to lock in prices, based on delivery times in the future, but the global currency markets are unable to offer a similar facility. The study shows that foreign exchange markets are more central for the orderly trade of sugar compared to other commodity markets, while Non-Deliverable Futures give some progression towards an integrated hedge.

Global public health challenges is often linked to the use of added sugars, but this relationship is unproven and there is no internationally recognised evidence that points to a direct link between the consumption of sugar and excess weight. Furthermore, the objective of reducing added sugar from our basic diet has taken on a pathway of its own. The study details the rising application of sugar taxes, especially on soft drinks, analyses the impact these have had on sugar consumption, the challenges that sits within food manufacturing sector and the detrimental impact this has had on national sugar economies. The study also considers historic data on obesity in selected countries where sugar consumption remained flat to declining.

The organic, Fairtrade, and specialty sugars markets have shown mixed developments in recent years. These three markets overlap but on aggregate amounted to around 928,000 tonnes in 2019. What unifies them is the premium attained over world market prices and they offer diversification opportunities for sugar industries. The outlook for each of these markets diverge, with organic and specialty supported by destination interest, while Fairtrade sugar sales have faltered in recent years and a number of producing cooperatives have been decertified. Looking ahead, the EU organics Action Plan under the Green Deal is set to increase supply, as well as demand, it is conceivable that within this decade, the market for organic cane and beet sugar will grow substantially.

This study updates the breadth of the stand-alone (autonomous) sugar refining industry in key destination markets and analyses related sugar trade impacts. Over the past decade ongoing investment in new and expanded capacity has continued. As in the prior decade, investment has been centred in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), and the Far East – both large sugar deficit markets. Refining capacity has also increased in the Indian Sub-Continent, in Canada and the United States, as well as in Nigeria in Sub Sahara Africa. Meanwhile in the EU27+UK, stand-alone refining capacity has contracted and there has been little incentive for inter-crop refining of raw sugar at sugar beet plants. Similarly, in Eastern Europe and the CIS, stand-alone refining capacity has been idled because import needs have markedly declined with Russia’s march towards self-sufficiency. With a significant 13 mln tonnes boost to refining at destination – particularly in MENA and the Far East – global raw sugar trade rose by another 10 mln tonnes between 2011 and 2020, to reach a fresh record of close to 39 mln tonnes. Of this, key beneficiaries on the export side have been Brazil and Thailand. Looking forwards, key uncertainties and issues impacting prospects for refining in destination markets are identified and discussed.

Bio-based production today is seen as a central element to a future bioeconomy and a key component of a more sustainable and less wasteful circular economy. Within this space, bioplastics are still a niche, but fast-growing potential outlet for the sugar industry. New production capacity is being installed by several companies around the world, and bioplastics are attracting the attention of policymakers because of their use of renewable resources and implications for sustainable development, within the context of a wider bioeconomy. This paper assesses the current market situation for production diversification into higher added-value products, such as bioplastics, and investigates how sugar crops fit within its feedstock market.

The purpose of this study is to give a macro-level overview of the sugar industry within the scope of the United Nation’s (UN) ninth Sustainable Development Goal (SDG 9). The goal covers three elements – Infrastructure, Industries and Innovation – each of which has direct relevance to the sugar industry. This study also outlines the operational aspects of the sugar industry in first instance, after which these credentials are contrasted against the objectives under UN SDG 9 – which covers infrastructure, industries and innovation, three key areas in which the sugar industry excels and benefits the local economy.

China is one of the largest economies in the world, second only to the US, with exponential growth over the past few decades, its annual GDP growth rate between 2008 and 2018 averaged 8.1%. Although, the pace of growth has slowed in recent years, it remains on a high level compared to many other developing countries in the world. This study will present a general overview of China’s sugar market, with an update on the recent market situation, the country’s policy on sugar production and governmental support of the sugar industry, to demonstrate its importance in the world sugar economy, and show principal changes of its position on the world sugar map.

In the last few years, a significant number of digital technologies have positively impacted the agricultural sector in drastic ways, permeating through the entire value chain – from production, to distribution to sales. In this study, key drivers prompting innovation in AgTech are examined and major topics to which AgTech offers solutions are considered, such as agricultural productivity, data analytics, market linkages and financial inclusion. Relevant examples to the sugar sector are outlined and the importance of big-data, its value, and ownership are analysed.

The purpose of this study is to give a detailed overview on the workings of futures markets, including sugar, and the participation of funds in markets. Futures have played an important role in the market for over a century, and have gone through a number of evolutions during that time. Throughout, the futures market has remained an important risk management tool for commercial users. The failure of financial markets during the 2008 crash has advanced the importance of market regulation. The corporate objectives and the key metrics, along which the exchange operates, are briefly reviewed to complete the overview. Lastly, we will pull together the reported insights and conclude by surmising the impact of fund activity in the sugar market.

Today, the United States and Brazil dominate production and consumption of fuel ethanol worldwide. In the US, market dynamics continue to set a path for increased biofuels use in the country, with the prospect for E15 giving further hope for the domestic corn ethanol industry. In Brazil, the large and growing flex-fuel vehicle fleet’s potential is bolstered by the creation of a carbon market, named RenovaBio. In the European Union, the next largest biofuels market, the revised Renewable Energy Directive for 2020-2030 places a cap on the share of the renewables target that can be met by conventional biofuels, demonstrating a preference for advanced biofuels and vehicle electrification instead. In India and China, biofuels are being given priority, with renewed commitment and expanded blending mandates potentially turning them into global pivotal markets – though they are limited by feedstock availability.

The freight market has gone through various changes in recent decades, which can be broadly categorised into two sections: changes in the price discovery mechanism for freight costs and changes in the regulation and structure of the freight market. Structural change in the freight market, in terms of vessel building, fuel compliance and pricing mechanisms, could see this interaction between sugar trade and freight markets change in the coming decade. The purpose of this study is to give an update on (MECAS(05)18 and MECAS(98)11) the functioning of freight markets and its impact on the sugar market. The freight framework receives a comprehensive review covering freight pricing, structural changes in freight, sugar’s response and thoughts around the use of container freight.

A considerable slowing down in world consumption growth witnessed by the market in the second half of the 2010s suggests that sugar use dynamics no longer guarantee a speedy return to a more balanced market after a surplus phase of the cycle. Population growth and per capita income remains the major drivers of sugar consumption. The survey has also identified health concerns as a new important driver. According to ISO projections, the world average annual growth rate is expected to reduce to 1.2% by the end of the 2020s, a significant drop from the current 10-year average of 1.6%. As a result, only by the end of the next decade is intake expected to surpass the 200 mln tonne mark.

Price volatility is an inherent characteristic of agricultural commodity markets. In contrast to well-monitored global market prices, information on domestic prices are often incomplete and difficult to obtain. The study finds that despite a positive correlation, there is a large gap between average world and domestic prices. On average, between 2007 and 2018, retail prices have been twice higher than world market prices for white sugar. World weighted average prices at the wholesale level remained over 40% above world market prices.

The Asian Pacific Rim (APR) region is the biggest region on the world sugar balance sheet in terms of consumption and imports. Both production and export statistics for the region lag behind South American figures, due to Brazil, while production in Southern Asia, including India, was also marginally above the APR region’s total in 2017/18. This study reviews and updates the current sugar market situation in selected countries in Asia, and quantifies changes in the regional sugar trade.

Cane and beet payment systems define the relationships between growers and processors in all sugar industries which makes their relationship obligatory and symbiotic. Not only do they determine how industry revenues are distributed between them, they are also essential in establishing the incentives at both field and factory levels. The survey analysis the diversity of cane and beet payment systems including revenue sharing in existence around the world.

The aim of this study is to examine the effectiveness of established regional agreements, evaluate recent sugar-related developments and the future possible outcomes including challenges in regional and bilateral programmes. This paper particularly focuses on the trade aspect of the sugar economy, where commercial and legislative elements combine to shape the current flow of sugar across the globe, as well as setting boundaries for future levels of global cooperation. The paper concludes by evaluating the broader drivers within the global economy and their impact on the progression towards a global sugar economy.

The sugar sector is in a privileged position where it has the potential to positively influence a number of key Sustainable Development Goals, and has done so over the years in different ways, involving several diversification options such as ethanol, the cogeneration of energy using sugarcane bagasse and bio-based products. More and better social, environmental, and economic data is needed, going forward, to promote better evidence-based policymaking as well as to track progress towards a more sustainable society. In order to take full advantage of its potential, there is also a need for political will and the promotion of policies that encourage the use of these diversification options going forward.

Last year, Pakistan surprised the sugar world with output over 6.5 mln tonnes, making the country the world’s fifth largest cane sugar producer. This ISO study is the first to specifically focus on Pakistan’s sugar economy with an objective to review the recent developments and drivers of the country’s sugar economy and to formulate projections of sugar production, consumption, and trade in the coming 10 years. This paper evaluates Pakistan’s sugar market and its importance for the world sugar economy including recent trends, prospects, projections and revenue diversification through bagasse-based electricity co-generation, molasses and ethanol production and exports. With Pakistan successfully competing through its large -scale exports, the country is not expected to become a sustainable source of sugar supply in the world.

Since the beginning of the new millennium, the world sugar market has seen an increase in sugar production by nearly 50 mln tonnes while the volume of sugar traded internationally grew by nearly 20 mln tonnes. The market also has witnessed a number of tectonic shifts in the world sugar economy. This study investigates how changes have affected the seasonal distribution of sugar production, consumption and trade on both the global and individual country level. The study covers the period since the start of the new millennium to 2017/18. It is entirely based on sugar statistics regularly collected by the ISO from more than 80 countries as well as ISO estimates for 2016/17 and 2017/18. Using the result of the study the ISO is planning to introduce quarterly world sugar balances as a permanent feature of the ISO Quarterly Market Outlook.

After a decade of frenzied expansion and investment, the decade that followed proved much more challenging for the Brazilian sugar and ethanol sector. Since the global financial crisis of 2008, the sector had to contend with significant credit restrictions and many firms in the sugarcane sector were caught with high levels of debt, shifting the focus from greenfield projects to consolidation. This study investigates how these developments have affected the industrial and agricultural performance of the world’s leading sugar and cane-ethanol producer. The domestic fuel ethanol market is reviewed, particularly outlining the policy-driven nature of production and demand, and a ten-year outlook for the industry is given, highlighting the importance biofuels will play in reviving the performance of the sector.

The sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region has a particular position in the sugar market today. It holds the greatest potential for sugar consumption growth of any global region, with below-average per capita consumption and above-average population growth. It has abundant resource for the expansion of agricultural production, in general, and sugar production in particular; including potential for diversification into biofuels, cogeneration and cooking fuels. The objective of this paper is to identify and investigate the key structures and developments in national industries and to set out regional balances. Additionally, the flow of sugar between member states of regional trade agreements, as well as between different regions, will be reviewed.

According to the trade, increasing amounts of white sugar are now shipped in containers. In this study, the ISO presents its first look at the seaborne trade of white sugar in containers to gain a better picture of the extent of this logistical shift. Major white sugar exporters such as Brazil, India and Thailand increased containerized sugar exports both in absolute terms, as well as in the share of total white sugar exports since 2007.

In the survey, the ISO presents data on areas, agricultural and industrial yields collected from 48 cane-growing and 33 beet-growing countries. The collected sample covers the period of 15 years starting from 2001/02. In 2016, the surveyed countries were responsible for 99% of global cane sugar production and 97% of global beet sugar production.

The key objective in this study is to examine the key economic and policy drivers impacting the sugar industry in the Caribbean (Barbados, Belize, Guyana, Jamaica, Dominican Republic and Cuba), with a view to ascertaining the region’s future prospects over the next decade. Because much of the Caribbean industry has not speedily reacted to the long-expected fundamental external challenge presented by EU sugar policy reform, time is now of the essence.

For nearly two decades after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia and neighbouring countries were among the main destinations for sugar traded internationally. Recently the region has become nearly self-sufficient in sugar. But can the CIS countries maintain and continue to further expand their beet sugar production. In this study the ISO examines the situation in eleven individual CIS countries, looking into major trends, key drivers and future prospects for sugar production, consumption and trade and provides an assessment of the region’s sugar supply and demand by 2025.

This paper reviews developments and prospects for both the key caloric and non-caloric alternatives to sugar. Attention is first focussed on high fructose syrup and prospective developments in the US, China and the EU - where production and consumption of isoglucose (the European term for HFS) is set to grow markedly once production quotas are removed in October this year. In the second part of the study attention is turned to high intensity sweeteners including the well-established legacy sweeteners - all synthetic/chemical - including saccharin, cyclamate, aspartame and acesulfame-K, as well as second generation artificial sweeteners such as sucralose, neotame and advantame. “Natural HIS” (derived from sources such as leaves, berries and fruits) are considered separately, including stevia sweeteners, Luo Han Guo and sweet proteins (such as Thaumatin). The final section of the study addresses the question of whether alternative sweeteners have yet caused meaningful changes to sweetener consumption patterns at a global level, and whether sugar demand will suffer losses to alternative sweeteners in coming years.

Sustainability initiatives, with a growing focus on production processes and the environment, have developed in unison with the growing demands from food and beverage companies for sustainably produced commodities which meet required standards related to human rights, labour working conditions and environmental impacts. Proponents of GM crops promote them as innovative, science-based technologies that contribute to achieving sustainability. A key question is how might GM sugar integrate with the major sustainability certification standards? This study conducts a literature review of academic papers on the debate over the sustainability of GM crops to examine whether they can, indeed, be sustainable and integrated with current certified sustainable sugar initiatives.

This paper provides a comprehensive stocktaking of the major mergers and acquisitions and foreign direct investment flows (M&A/FDI) - including joint ventures - in the world sugar industry over the past 5 years. Pressures created by falling world sugar prices and depressed margins from 2011 until earlier this year have stymied M&A/FDI activity. Even so, there is evidence that some large producing companies have continued to integrate operations across their entire supply chain to rationalise costs and boost margins, as well as to enhance geographical coverage and to diversify operations through M&A/FDI activity. The period also features several major divestments. Several deals have transpired to transform the competitive sugar trading and distribution business.

In 2010, the ISO provided a pioneering work on gathering statistics on direct and Industrial consumption of sugar in different countries. The new survey updates key data pertaining to the structure of sugar use with the goal of enhancing the understanding of the key drivers of sugar consumption by the food and beverages sector. In the survey, sugar consumption data are collected from 38 countries and the European Union. The surveyed countries were responsible for 75% of global sugar consumption in 2015. According to the survey, in global terms, overall consumption shows an average annual growth by 1.92%, which can be compared to only 0.40% for direct consumption while an average growth rate of industrial use is as high as 2.7% and that of sugar use by soft drink manufacturers is even higher (nearly 4.0% a year).

Drawing from a range of sources, this study provides an overview of the main elements underpinning the “sugar and health” debate with the objective of separating fact from fiction. While there is abundant evidence to support the consumption of sugar as part of a healthy diet, there is insufficient evidence to suggest a link between total sugar intake and the prevalence of obesity. Nevertheless, demands for further regulation and taxation against sugary products are growing. This paper begins with an analysis of diets’ composition and sugar consumption worldwide. It then examines key scientific facts and recent recommendations related to “sugar and health”. The drivers and reactions to the current “sugar backlash” are analyzed from the point of view of consumers and food and beverage companies. Lastly, this study delves into the issue of taxation as a means to influence food prices and diets.

Thailand’s sugar industry is one of the largest worldwide, in 2015 producing around 11 mln tonnes and exporting almost 8 mln tonnes. The objective in this study is to assess the sugar industry’s outlook over the coming decade by examining key drivers including: government policy and targets for the sector, the potential for cane area expansion; prospects for cane yields/quality; milling sector developments; as well as sugar consumption prospects. A key focal point is the relative success the Thai sugar industry has attained in adding value by diversifying into cane bagasse cogeneration and into fuel ethanol production.

The study is dedicated to reviewing recent fundamental developments and identifying the key drivers of the world trade in molasses and beet pulp, by-products of the sugar industry. Although molasses and beet pulp are used mostly domestically, about 7% of world output of molasses and 15% of global production of beet pulp are exported to the world market. Molasses and beet pulp have only little value as compared to sugar, but sales of molasses and beet pulp abroad help generate additional income for the sugar industry with relatively low overheads.

India is currently the world’s largest consumer and the second largest producer of sugar. In the past, the national sugar balance regularly moved from surplus to deficit and back. Since 2010/11 the country’s sugar balance has shown an excess of production over domestic demand, season after season. A key issue addressed by the paper is the likelihood of the return of the sugar cycle. The ISO suggests that huge year-on-year drops in production below the level of domestic consumption are unlikely, at least in the coming three to five years assuming normal weather conditions. The surplus character of the balance may be altered but difficult-to-predict changes in the government sugar policy or a significant increase in cane use for ethanol production.

Organic, Fairtrade and specialty sugars for much of the past decade have seen fast growing niche markets, albeit together they are thought to presently account for less than 0.5% of world sugar consumption and production. With these niche sugars reputedly attracting sometimes significant pricing premiums over conventional sugar, and with on going strong fundamentals expected to support continued growth in demand for organic products in key markets, can offtake of niche sugars keep growing at strong rates? This study investigates the markets for organic, Fairtrade and specialty sugars with a view to better understanding recent market developments at the global, regional and country levels. Key markets and suppliers are identified and examined. Data are also collated on production, exports and price premiums.

Advances in technology have created numerous pathways to produce bio-chemicals and advanced biofuels through sugars present in agricultural crops and waste. A growing number of companies are considering the market potential for renewable molecules with a view to capturing higher margins. For the sugar sector, specifically, there are opportunities to create value-added solutions by exploiting existing and new resources while tapping into growing demand for bio-based materials. This report updates and expands MECAS(09)17 by investigating the potential for commercialization of cane and beet bio-products technology in the context of competing feedstocks and recent developments in crude oil prices.