Southern Africa, defined as the 16 countries of the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC), is a low production cost region for sugar. In its major industries,agro-climatic characteristics are conducive to high sugar yields (fertile soils, a defined wet season and seasonal temperature variation). The region boasts some of the world’s highest cane yields and field and factory performances. Seven countries typically generate a surplus in excess of domestic needs: Eswatini, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Collectively these industries produced a surplus of almost 1.6 mln tonnes per annum over the 2020-22 base period. At the same time, Southern Africa houses large deficit markets. Several are deficit sugar producing countries – including Democratic Republic of Congo (Congo DR), Angola, Madagascar, and Tanzania, while five other countries produce no sugar at all, including Botswana, Namibia, and Lesotho together with the islands of Comoros and Seychelles. These deficit countries accumulate a regional deficit of as much as 1.2 mln tonnes per annum, leaving a net surplus of 0.4 mln tonnes. Intra-regional trade is limited outside of the 5 member South Africa Customs Union (SACU) bloc and most of the surplus is exported to the EU, UK and the US with smaller volumes to markets elsewhere within Africa. Deficit countries (outside of SACU) import sugar from the world market in preference to regional origins. Importantly, at the regional level, sugar production has not grown over the past two decades, remaining either side of a 4.9 mln tonnes average, driven by weather events and oft-times associated infestations of pests and diseases. Regional consumption has grown steadily, rising from 2.5 mln tonnes to 4.7 mln tonnes, primarily driven by population growth. Accordingly, the regional surplus has diminished over time, having been as high as 2.2 mln tonnes in 2002, and is now around 0.4 mln tonnes. A deep dive into the major sugar industries in Southern Africa allows production prospects to be ascertained. Juxtaposed against consumption growth prospects, country level surpluses and deficits are projected to 2030. Potential for expanded intra-regional trade is briefly considered. More so, since sugar is no longer the only focal point, industries are re-thinking their mid-to-long term strategies with a greater drive to further diversify into cogeneration and into biofuels, including ethanol-based SAF, amongst other possibilities.

Contents:

Introduction 

Part 1: Southern Africa Sugar Industry 
     (1) Production 
     (2) Consumption 
     (3) Deficit and Surplus Countries 

Part 2: Southern Africa in a World Sugar Context 
     (1) Exports 
     (2) Imports 
     (3) Intra-Southern Africa Sugar Trade and the SADC Sugar Protocol 
     (4) Preferential Markets Outside of Southern Africa 

Part 3: Value Adding and Diversification 
     (1) Ethanol 
     (2) Cogeneration 

Part 4. Country Reviews 
     (1) South Africa 
     (2) Eswatini 
     (3) Mauritius 
     (4) Zimbabwe 
     (5) Mozambique 

Part 5: Conclusions and Outlook 
     (1) Consumption 
     (2) Production 
     (3) Surpluses and Deficits in 2030 
     (4) Prospects for Intra-Regional Trade 
     (5) Sugarcane Renewable Energy Outlook