This study aims to replicate the methodology used by tradehouses and other market analysts to create quarterly supply and demand balances and quarterly trade flow reconciliations, with a view to testing its relevance in today’s sugar market and the analysis currently undertaken by the ISO. This builds on the statistical work done in MECAS(18)05, which provided a quarterly breakdown of ISO production, consumption and trade data. The study also explored changes in each quarter’s share of respective totals across three 5-year periods from 2001 to 2016. The current study updates these statistics up to 2022, through four 5-year periods and provides a snapshot of the most recent developments, covering 2021 and 2022, which were significantly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Tradehouses and other market analysts separate trade statistics into quarterly periods in order to gather a greater understanding of current and prospective physical market dynamics and their impacts on the price of sugar. Importantly, it is the analysis of forthcoming quarters that is the main focus for traders. The intentions and targets of market participants, such as traders, destination refiners or government trade bodies, are therefore the key drivers, rather than what is subsequently realised in terms of trade.

By moving to quarterly figures, insights into producer, consumer and trade behaviour are less dependent on broader seasonal aggregates. A quarterly timeframe also gives an opportunity to reflect season-specific features such as early or delayed starts to harvesting, the changing date of festivals and their impact on monthly consumption, as well as restrictions in logistics in specific periods, such as the competition from different crops for port elevation capacity in Brazil, or weather limiting operational windows.

This study confirms that the quarterly analysis completed in 2018 remains current, with the update continuing to show a surplus in production either side of year-end followed by deficit quarters during the mid-year period. Meanwhile, the extended analysis in later chapters details the commercial approach for traders. Their views around forward-looking market prospects are divergent, by their very nature, but this analysis will aid, and add value to, in the understanding of their quarterly trade analysis particularly for importer members of the ISO, in the realm of corporate marketing and position management.

Contents:

Introduction 									

1.	The Added Value in Sugar					

2.	Updating Historic Analysis		 			
        Quarterly Production							 
        Quarterly Consumption 							 
        Quarterly Stock Change			 				 
        Quarterly Exports and Imports						 

3.	The Commercial Approach					
        Creating A Forward-looking Quarterly Balance	 			 
        A Raw Sugar Quarterly Balance						 
        The Optimal Timeframe			 				 

4.	 An ISO Quarterly Outlook for 2024/25			
         Populating the Outlook							
         The Outlook for Raw Sugar Trade						
         Insights from the Trade Outlook						
         The Outlook for White Sugar Trade						
	
5.  Conclusion									

Annex I	- S&P Global							
Annex 2	- Sugar Consultancy						
Annex 3	- ISO 2024/25 Balance					
Annex 4	- ISO Quarterly Trade Data