World Sugar Market
Initial estimate of the 2024/25 balance reveals a global deficit of 3.580 mln tonnes
Consumption forecast up at 182.867 mln tonnes, production down to 179.287 mln tonnes
2023/24 balance revised to a deficit of 0.200 mln tonnes, on greater than expected CS Brazil output before the start of the 2024/25 season
Trade volumes from CS Brazil have been raised accordingly in 2023/24, resulting in a forecast 4.094 mln tonnes decline in export availability in 2024/25
Market Price Update
Average August futures price anticipated to be lower than the May 2024 low, speculative selling / short positions contributing to the bearishness
The ISO price view is neutral to bullish over the next three months
World Fuel Ethanol Market
Global ethanol production is expected to rise to 118 bln litres in 2024, while demand is expected to rise to 113.5 bln litres; Increased ethanol production from grains supports the higher production total, while greater demand in Brazil and India has lifted the demand side
Co Product Markets
Weaker molasses prices as feed-grain prices soften
EU molasses production likely higher in 2024/25; World molasses trade to decline again in 2024
India’s exports slump due to export tax
Voluntary sanctions on Russian beet molasses exports
Both EU and US anticipated to import less in 2024
Sales of bagasse-based electricity to the grid has increased 16.2% in Brazil this year
Indian electricity sales to the grid have fallen 14.5% in 2024
European Bioplastics highlights just 0.021% of arable land is used to cultivate its feedstock
Alternative Sweeteners
US HFCS output up in 2024; firm exports to Mexico more than compensate for weaker US offtake
EU isoglucose production and use lower in 2024/25
New platform looks to exploit more sweet proteins
Keto fructose sweetener launched in the US
Monkfruit derivatives gain UK approval
Health concerns over Xylitol
Allulose swapped with Isomalto-oligosaccharide in gummy formulation
WTO Update
Considering options for restarting agricultural negotiations
New ideas and proposals needed to spur meaningful discussions
Brazil offers a work programme to move agricultural negotiations forward
RTAs and Sugar Provisions
Nigeria makes inaugural shipment under AfCFTA
ASEAN-India Trade in Goods Agreement (AITIGA) talks continue
Tripartite FTA finally ratified between COMESA, EAC AND SADC
EU-Fiji fully implements interim EPA
India and Australia move closer to a comprehensive FTA
India and EU FTA negotiations advance
South Korea and Thailand seek an EPA; while talks with Malaysia resume after 5-year hiatus
Thailand-EU FTA negotiations underway
The UAE signs CEPA with Mauritius
CPTPP member countries approve the UK’s accession protocol
Executive Brief
World Sugar Market
World Balance
Production
Consumption
Trade
Exporters
Importers
Fundamental Outlook
Brief(24)03 – Trade Balance for Raw and White Sugar
Market Price Update
Futures, spreads and arbitrage
Freight
Commodities and Currencies
Domestic Prices
World Fuel Ethanol Market
Overview
Price Dynamics
Carbon Markets
Production
Consumption
Co Product Markets
Molasses
Bagasse Cogeneration
Bioplastics & Biochemicals
Alternative Sweeteners
HFCS / Isoglucose
Intensive Sweeteners
Low Calorie Sweeteners
WTO Update
Regional Trade Agreements and Sugar Provisions
World Sugar Balance Estimates
The views expressed in this document are those of the ISO Secretariat. They do not necessarily represent the views of the ISO Members.