Quarterly Market Outlook - August 2025

World Sugar Market

First comprehensive assessment of the 2025/26 global balance 

Latest 2024/25 revision reveals a marginal reduction in the global deficit 

Global consumption forecast to rise 

Updates show consumption hit a record 

The global stock total is expected to decline 

Stock-to-use ratio lower, a 9-year low, while the alternative ISO ending-stock calculation points to a multi-decade low.


Market Price Update

Average monthly ISA prices in August (up to the 22nd) remains near 51-month low, established in July

The ISO price view is neutral-to-bullish over the next three months

Brent crude averaged USD70.95/barrel in July, down from USD79.21/barrel in January amid OPEC+ supply increases; Corn prices fell to one-year low at USD4.02/bushel in July on favourable US weather, bumper Brazilian harvest, and trade tensions; Coffee prices surged to USD3.70/lb in August after falling to nine-month low of USD2.92/lb in July

US Dollar weakened against other currencies and the dollar index basket

Most major sugar markets experienced price decreases in May-July as USD-denominated global raw sugar prices declined 6%

Brazilian crystal sugar prices fell to three-year lows


World Fuel Ethanol Market

World ethanol production forecast 

Global consumption projection

US production expected to reach record 

Brazilian ethanol production forecast 

India's production projected to surge 

 

Co Product Markets

Beet molasses prices to move higher on reduction in EU production

Cane molasses market to remain thinly supplied

India’s export tax and voluntary EU sanctions against Russian product still limit trade activity

EU to import more in second-half 2025

US importing less in 2025 so far as domestic livestock feed ingredients more competitive

Key importers in Asia show lower arrivals in the first half of 2025

Brazil: Calendar year bagasse electricity

India: Bagasse power output 

UN Global Plastics Treaty negotiations conclude without agreement after sixth round, delaying regulatory certainty

Thailand advancing bio-hub strategy with NatureWorks 

 

Alternative Sweeteners

North America holds largest share of global HFCS market while Asia is fastest growing region, led by China

HFCS-55 dominant, but HFCS-42 use expanding, as is HFCS-90

Average monthly US corn costs higher so far in 2025

US HFCS exports to Mexico down on lower use

Coca Cola will not reformulate its lead product to use sugar instead of HFCS in the US

New research targets potential for artificial sweeteners to cause early puberty

Mogroside production, using watermelons, advances

Ready-to-drink coffee manufacturers turn to natural alternative sweeteners

UK Food Standards Agency warns against glycerol consumption by children

 

WTO Update

Mr. Diego Alfieri of Brazil is new Chair for Committee on Agriculture

Persistent divergences in views on how to achieve concrete and meaningful MC14 outcomes for agriculture


RTAs and Sugar Provisions

Australia and the EU revive FTA talks

Canada-Indonesia FTA finalised

EFTA clinches trade deal with MERCOSUR

Ethiopia publishes AfCFTA tariff concessions

India-US FTA talks collapse

Revised FTA between EU and Ukraine

India and the UK signed a Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA)

US set August 1st deadline for new trade agreements to avoid steep, country-specific tariffs

New agreements reached with UK, China, EU, Japan and South Korea amongst others

US universal tariff remains at 10% for countries with which the US has a trade surplus and a 15% tariff floor for countries with which the US has a trade deficit

 

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