World Sugar Market
The ISO’s third revision moves the 2025/26 global balance to a surplus of 2.244 mln tonnes
Latest 2024/25 update narrows the global deficit to 3.196 mln tonnes from 3.464 mln tonnes
Global consumption forecast to rise 0.39% to 179.760 mln tonnes in 2025/26
Trade surplus of 0.900 mln tonnes in 2025/26 is smaller than the production / consumption balance, pointing to some stock accumulations
Stock-to-use ratio at 44.15% in 2025/26, using revised methodology, fractionally above last season’s 15-year low
Market Price Update
Average monthly ISA prices in May (up to 12th) of USD 15.54 cents/lb is a season-to-date high.
The ISO price view is neutral over the next three months with CS Brazil exports the main feature. Precautionary stock building together with uncertainty around CS Brazil sugar allocation, could change the outlook
Persian Gulf conflict drives sharp re-pricing of energy and fertiliser markets from late February
Brent crude averaged USD102.81/barrel in April, up sharply from the mid-USD70s in January
Middle East FOB granular urea up 54% in March to around USD725/tonne, highest since April 2022
US Dollar broadly stable this quarter; BRL and CNY appreciated further
Indian Rupee hit an all-time low of 95.6/USD in mid-May
ISA Daily Price up 3% February–April, but domestic markets diverged
Brazilian crystal prices broadly stable; EU and Mexican prices eased; Russian prices surged 12%
World Fuel Ethanol Market
World ethanol production at 123.1 bln litres in 2025, up 3.3%; forecast at 129.4 bln litres in 2026
Global consumption at 122.9 bln litres in 2025, up 4.4%; projected 126.9 bln litres in 2026
Persian Gulf conflict accelerates biofuel policy momentum globally from late February
Brazil, India and the EU eye next step up in blends, towards E32, E25 and E20 respectively
Falling sugar prices tilt CS Brazil’s cane allocation towards ethanol in 2026/27
Corn ethanol displaces cane-based supply in Brazil and India as the feedstock pivot deepens
New mandates in Indonesia, Vietnam, Nepal, Ukraine and Zimbabwe broaden the demand base
Co Product Markets
Molasses
Exportable molasses supplies set to increase in 2026
Larger crops in key exporters, combined with major policy shifts (India’s removal of its prohibitive export tax, the Philippines’ import ban and Pakistan’s loss of GSP status in the EU) exert downward pressure on cane molasses prices
Beet molasses supplies will be tighter due to lower yields in Europe
Australia, Indonesia, and Thailand to remain the leading exporters in Asian/Pacific region in 2026
US imports stable in 2026 but extra-EU imports likely boosted by reduced beet molasses production
Aggregate imports by five key Asian buyers down 20% in 2025 and slumped in first quarter of 2026 following Philippines’ imports ban
Cogeneration
Brazil: Q1 2026 bagasse electricity sales up 35% on Q1 2025 at 975.3 GWh
India: Q1 2026 bagasse generation at 4,299 GWh, down 6.2% and the lowest Q1 since 2017
Bioplastics
UN Plastics Treaty: INC-5.3 procedural only; INC-5.4 pushed to late 2026 or early 2027
Braskem launches first sugarcane-derived bio-PE grades for food-contact and pharma packaging
EU Council endorses new Bioeconomy Strategy
India: Balrampur Bioyug's 80,000 tonne/year PLA facility on track for October 2026 commissioning
Alternative Sweeteners
Forecast declines in US HFCS demand and reduced exports to Mexico continue to weigh on 2026 US production
US net corn sweetener costs declined in first four months of 2026
US HFCS annual price negotiations resulted in a 2026 roll‑over
No change in EU isoglucose production in 2025/26
Biotechnology accelerating production of sweet proteins via precision fermentation
Long-running debate over artificial sweeteners intensifies with new studies raising fresh health concerns
WTO Update
MC14 delivered no negotiated outcomes on agriculture - public stocking the core blockage, cotton negotiations stalled completely and no progress made on domestic support, special safeguard mechanism, export restrictions or market access
Post MC14 agriculture negotiations remain stalled
RTAs and Sugar Provisions
AfCFTA – Türkiye: Exploratory trade links discussions
China–Kenya: New deal agreed
Congo, DR – SADC: Regional integration efforts advance
Costa Rica joins CPTPP
EU–Australia: FTA removes nearly all tariffs, but tight TRQs for sugar and ethanol
EU–Mercosur: provisionally applied
EU–US: agreement at risk
India–New Zealand: FTA signed
India–UK: FTA set to enter into force mid‑May 2026
US–Ecuador: New reciprocal trade deal
US–Thailand: Dialogue continues
UAE–Vietnam CEPA: in force
Executive Brief
World Sugar Market
World Balance
Brief(26)02 – Midterm review – The outlook for the 2026/27 world balance
Production
Consumption
Trade
Exporters
Importers
Fundamental Outlook
Brief(26)03 – Trade Balance for Raw and White Sugar
Market Price Update
Futures, spreads and arbitrage
Freight
Commodities and Currencies
Domestic Prices
World Fuel Ethanol Market
Overview
Price Dynamics
Carbon Markets
Production
Consumption
Co Product Markets
Molasses
Bagasse Cogeneration
Bioplastics & Biochemicals
Alternative Sweeteners
HFCS / Isoglucose
Intensive Sweeteners
WTO Update
Regional Trade Agreements and Sugar Provisions
World Sugar Balance Estimates